Sudden rise in interest rates could cause home prices to drop 30 per cent: CMHC

Federal housing agency sounds warning as it releases stress test findings on Canadian mortgages

Worries are growing that a sharp interest rate rise could deflate home prices.

TORONTO – A sudden rise in interest rates could cause house prices to plummet on average 30 per cent nationally, according to stress tests performed by Canada’s federal housing agency released Thursday.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said it studied the impact of two interest rate hikes – a one percentage point increase over one quarter this year, followed by a 1.4 percentage point rise during one quarter next year.

CMHC said its mortgage insurance business would incur $1.13 billion in losses in such an event but that it could withstand the hit. A spokesman for the agency stressed that the scenario is an “extreme case” and would be unprecedented.

Interest rates have started to go up this week as a sell-off in the U.S. bond market has driven bond yields higher, making it more expensive for banks to access capital.

Two of Canada’s biggest banks – TD Bank (TSX:TD) and Royal Bank (TSX:RY) – have hiked their fixed mortgage rates, anywhere from 0.05 percentage points to 0.4 percentage points.

There are concerns that as interest rates rise, some Canadian homeowners could encounter difficulty making their mortgage payments and face the risk of default.

“Households are so leveraged right now and house prices are at such incredibly high levels relative to household incomes,” said David Madani, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics.

“Even a moderate doubling in interest rates – which sounds like a lot but we’re talking about maybe 200 basis points (two percentage points) – could potentially pop the housing bubble.”

Interest rates have been trending lower for more than a decade, but that has not always been the case.

Fuelled by inflation, mortgage rates soared in the 1980s and posted five-year fixed rates topping more than 20 per cent in 1981.

According to data kept by the Bank of Canada, the posted five-year rate for a conventional mortgage at the big Canadian banks climbed from 13.25 per cent in January 1980 to 16.75 per cent in April 1980, an increase of 3.5 percentage points.

However, Canada started using an inflation target to guide monetary policy in 1991 and since then inflation has been mostly tamed and interest rates have fallen.

The stress test conducted by CMHC was one of several extreme scenarios it examined over a time period from 2017-2021. They included a U.S.-style housing correction, a high-magnitude earthquake that destroys critical infrastructure in a major Canadian city and a drop in oil prices where they fall to US$20 per barrel next year and remain between US$20-30 for another four years.

Another scenario that the agency tested involved a “severe and prolonged” economic depression, which CMHC said would see house prices drop 25 per cent and unemployment rise to 13.5 per cent. The insurer said it would incur $3.12 billion in losses in that case.

CMHC said its capital holdings were sufficient to withstand all scenarios it tested. None of the scenarios should be considered a prediction or forecast, the agency added.

“Stress testing involves searching out extreme scenarios that have a very remote chance of happening and planning for them,” Romy Bowers, CMHC’s chief risk officer, said in a statement.

“Rigorous stress testing is an essential part of our risk management program and allows CMHC to evaluate its capital levels against these scenarios.

– Alexandra Posadzki, The Canadian Press

Just Posted

North Delta Huskies honour former captain as provincial banner unveiled

NDSS’s championship win marks the school’s first senior boys provincial basketball title in 29 years

McCallum’s canal pitch took Surrey councillors by surprise

City government has more important issues pressing than building a canal, councillors say

Surrey RCMP conducting drug-related search warrant

Traffic closed in both directions on 128th Street, between 64th and 66th Avenue

Surrey-North Delta Meals on Wheels in ‘desperate’ search for new partner

Without a new kitchen found by Sept. 1, the charity says it won’t have food to deliver to those in need

Cloverdale Toastmasters celebrate 25 years of learning and laughter

Cloverdale club is a high achieving, yet laid-back Toastmasters group

VIDEO: ‘Avengers: Endgame’ to be re-released with new footage

‘Avatar’ holds global box office record at $2.788 billion, while ‘Endgame’ stands at $2.743 billion…

B.C. teen killed by falling tree near Victoria

Second youth also injured in freak incident during field trip at Camp Barnard near Sooke

Elias Pettersson wins Calder Trophy as NHL’s top rookie

Vancouver forward first Canuck to win award since Pavel Bure in 1992

FVRD chair calls B.C. incineration plan for Philippines waste ‘disturbing’

Metro Vancouver ‘uniquely capable’ of safely disposing of waste coming back to Canada, say officials

VIDEO: Acknowledging skeptics, finance minister vows to build Trans Mountain project

Bill Morneau said he recognizes ‘huge amount of anxiety’ in Calgary over future of oil and gas sector

Shovels could be in the ground on Trans Mountain by September, CEO says

Ian Anderson points to weeks likely required for NEB to reinstate 2016 regulatory record

Scorpion gives birth after hitching ride in B.C. woman’s luggage

A Vancouver woman inadvertently brought the animal home from a trip to Cuba

RCMP allows officers to grow beards

Members can now wear beards and goatees, as long as they’re neatly groomed

Girl, 10, poisoned by carbon monoxide at B.C. campsite could soon return home

Lucille Beaurain died and daughter Micaela Walton, 10, was rushed to B.C. Children’s Hospital on May 18

Most Read